SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-2 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus Karlsruher SC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 1L from 8 games (2.12 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 1D 0L this season (4 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karlsruher SC (all games): 3W 3D 2L across 8 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.12. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karlsruher SC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.62 in SSV Jahn Regensburg's favour (2.12 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SSV Jahn Regensburg register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Karlsruher SC in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
SSV Jahn Regensburg half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Karlsruher SC half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% versus Karlsruher SC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Jahn Regensburg 62% | Karlsruher SC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.87 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.507 / defence 1.173 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.856 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.422. SSV Jahn Regensburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.507 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 8 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 45% | Draw 28% | Karlsruher SC 27%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Karlsruher SC 3.70. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 75% | Karlsruher SC 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 45% | Draw 28% | Karlsruher SC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.87 / Karlsruher SC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.507 / def 1.173 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.856 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Karlsruher SC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 2 Karlsruher SC.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 45% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (1.51) and Karlsruher SC's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karlsruher SC's attack (0.86x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.58
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
3.30
1.43
Karlsruher SC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
4%
24.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.43 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 5W 2D 1L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karlsruher SC's form line: 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karlsruher SC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.50 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC in 62%.
Defensively: SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Karlsruher SC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Karlsruher SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Karlsruher SC away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 2.50 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or Karlsruher SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Karlsruher SC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karlsruher SC won 0-6 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Karlsruher SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
3
Draws
3
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, Karlsruher SC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-2 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Karlsruher SC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 75% for Karlsruher SC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 75% for Karlsruher SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Karlsruher SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 75% of Karlsruher SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 75% of Karlsruher SC's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 9, as SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.87 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.43 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.51 / defence 1.17 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 45% | Draw 28% | Karlsruher SC 27%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 62%, Karlsruher SC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.