SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hamburger SV (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SSV Jahn Regensburg face Hamburger SV.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hamburger SV make the trip to Jahnstadion Regensburg to face SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg at Jahnstadion Regensburg this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hamburger SV are 1.20 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Hamburger SV hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–5 with Hamburger SV winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hamburger SV have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 5.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 9% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% versus Hamburger SV 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52% | Hamburger SV 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.05 xG and Hamburger SV 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.658 / defence 0.896 | Hamburger SV attack 1.179 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.489. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 55 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 49%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Hamburger SV 2.04. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SSV Jahn Regensburg 10% | Hamburger SV 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.05 / Hamburger SV 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.658 / def 0.896 | Hamburger SV attack 1.179 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.489 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Hamburger SV xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 25% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV?
Record (5 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 5W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SSV Jahn Regensburg's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.18x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
25%
4.03
26%
3.82
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.62
1.57
Hamburger SV xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
5%
19.47
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.57 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent record stands at 5W 3D 15L from 23 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 4L across 23 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SSV Jahn Regensburg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SSV Jahn Regensburg have managed 4W 1D 6L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 74%.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 5W 3D 15L in their last 23 games (0.78 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 11W 8D 4L in their last 23 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.18 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 5-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
5
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 9%, Hamburger SV 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 73% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 64% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 9% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 73% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 73% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 22, as SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.05 xG and Hamburger SV 1.57 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.66 / defence 0.90 against Hamburger SV attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 49%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52%, Hamburger SV 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.