SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Eintracht Braunschweig travel to Jahnstadion Regensburg to take on SSV Jahn Regensburg. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 November 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 3W 3D 4L at Jahnstadion Regensburg — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record: 1W 3D 3L from 7 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.86 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Eintracht Braunschweig are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 53% of games.
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% | Eintracht Braunschweig 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.40 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.821 / defence 1.224 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.876 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.265. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 15 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 37% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 35%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Braunschweig 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eintracht Braunschweig (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% | Eintracht Braunschweig 57%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 37% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.40 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.821 / def 1.224 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.876 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 37% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.82x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
37%
2.69
27%
3.66
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.75
1.36
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.36 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 3D 7L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.20 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.13 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.29 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.86 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
3
Draws
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 29%, Eintracht Braunschweig 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 57% (Eintracht Braunschweig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 57% of games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 16, as SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.40 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.36 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.22 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.88 / defence 1.22, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 37% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 35%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 60%, Eintracht Braunschweig 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.20 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.