Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees VfL Osnabrück travel to Olympiastadion to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympiastadion this season.
VfL Osnabrück — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfL Osnabrück, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Osnabrück's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Hertha BSC have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hertha BSC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, VfL Osnabrück in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hertha BSC, 1 for VfL Osnabrück and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 3–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
VfL Osnabrück trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 60% and VfL Osnabrück 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 70% | VfL Osnabrück 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.80 xG and VfL Osnabrück 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.024 / defence 0.871 | VfL Osnabrück attack 0.831 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. Data: 44 Hertha BSC games / 10 VfL Osnabrück games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 60% | Draw 23% | VfL Osnabrück 17%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | VfL Osnabrück 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hertha BSC 70% | VfL Osnabrück 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 60% | Draw 23% | VfL Osnabrück 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Hertha BSC 1.80 / VfL Osnabrück 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.024 / def 0.871 | VfL Osnabrück attack 0.831 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
VfL Osnabrück xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück kick off?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Olympiastadion.
Where is Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück part of?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 60% chance of winning, VfL Osnabrück a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hertha BSC and VfL Osnabrück will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Osnabrück?
Record (3 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 1 | VfL Osnabrück 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Osnabrück in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. VfL Osnabrück (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 1.02x the league average against VfL Osnabrück's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Osnabrück's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.26
17%
5.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.65
0.84
VfL Osnabrück xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.95
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
36.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and VfL Osnabrück expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.84 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 9W 1D 0L from 10 games, a 2.80 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Osnabrück, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 5L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for VfL Osnabrück is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hertha BSC by 1.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Osnabrück heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfL Osnabrück's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; VfL Osnabrück are on 1.40 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; VfL Osnabrück in 60%.
Defensively: Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
VfL Osnabrück
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Osnabrück in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 games (2.80 PPG), while VfL Osnabrück have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or VfL Osnabrück away?
Hertha BSC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 3.00 PPG; VfL Osnabrück away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or VfL Osnabrück been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, VfL Osnabrück in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and VfL Osnabrück runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
1
VfL Osnabrück
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Osnabrück?
From 3 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, VfL Osnabrück have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and VfL Osnabrück last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when VfL Osnabrück 1-3 Hertha BSC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
VfL Osnabrück are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 75%, VfL Osnabrück 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Hertha BSC) and 25% (VfL Osnabrück).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / VfL Osnabrück away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play VfL Osnabrück?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hertha BSC's games and 50% of VfL Osnabrück's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs VfL Osnabrück usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 25% of VfL Osnabrück's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and VfL Osnabrück tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, VfL Osnabrück in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.