Hansa Rostock 0-1 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hansa Rostock have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
SV Sandhausen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Hansa Rostock, 0.70 for SV Sandhausen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hansa Rostock 1W, SV Sandhausen 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
SV Sandhausen — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 50% versus SV Sandhausen 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 52% | SV Sandhausen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.24 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.786 / defence 1.110 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.808 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.281. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Hansa Rostock games / 48 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 36% | Draw 31% | SV Sandhausen 32%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | SV Sandhausen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 40% | SV Sandhausen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 36% | Draw 31% | SV Sandhausen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.24 / SV Sandhausen 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.786 / def 1.110 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.808 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SV Sandhausen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 1 SV Sandhausen.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen part of?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 36% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen?
Record (2 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 1 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against SV Sandhausen's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — SV Sandhausen's attack (0.81x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
36%
2.74
31%
3.19
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.39
1.15
SV Sandhausen xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.15 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 15W 13D 20L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen's form line: 13W 15D 20L from 48 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 1.12 for SV Sandhausen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 6W 8D 10L from 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.19 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen in 65%.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or SV Sandhausen away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.08 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
1
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, SV Sandhausen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2023, when SV Sandhausen 1-2 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 54%, SV Sandhausen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hansa Rostock) and 50% (SV Sandhausen).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Hansa Rostock's games and 67% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 50% of SV Sandhausen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Sandhausen defy the odds to beat Hansa Rostock 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Sandhausen beat Hansa Rostock 0-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.24 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.15 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hansa Rostock fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 36% | Draw 31% | SV Sandhausen 32%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual SV Sandhausen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 52%, SV Sandhausen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.21 PPG, SV Sandhausen 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Sandhausen win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.