Hansa Rostock 2-3 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to Ostseestadion to face Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hansa Rostock have posted 1W 1D 8L at Ostseestadion — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hansa Rostock lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Holstein Kiel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 45% versus Holstein Kiel 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 45% | Holstein Kiel 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 0.96 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.686 / defence 1.348 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.002 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.264. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Hansa Rostock games / 60 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 21% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 55%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Holstein Kiel 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 30% | Holstein Kiel 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 21% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Hansa Rostock 0.96 / Holstein Kiel 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.686 / def 1.348 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.002 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Holstein Kiel xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 3 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 21% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Holstein Kiel?
Record (3 meetings): Hansa Rostock 2W | Draws 1 | Holstein Kiel 0W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Holstein Kiel in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.69) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (1.00x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
21%
4.73
24%
4.18
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.67
1.71
Holstein Kiel xG
4.73
21%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
4%
26.07
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.9 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.71 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 15D 28L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (20W 19D 21L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 1.32 for Holstein Kiel. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 7W 6D 17L across 30 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (8W 12D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.48 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 68%.
Last 60 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 15D 28L in their last 60 games (1.10 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 20W 19D 21L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 0.90 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Holstein Kiel have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
3
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Holstein Kiel?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Holstein Kiel 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Hansa Rostock, 80% for Holstein Kiel — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hansa Rostock) and 67% (Holstein Kiel).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hansa Rostock's games and 80% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 67% of Holstein Kiel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out Hansa Rostock 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Hansa Rostock 2-3 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 0.96 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.71 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hansa Rostock beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Holstein Kiel outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.69 / defence 1.35 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 21% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 55%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 45%, Holstein Kiel 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.10 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.