Hansa Rostock 0-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ostseestadion plays host to Hansa Rostock versus Hamburger SV in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 5 February 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hansa Rostock have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's home record at Ostseestadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Hamburger SV (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Hamburger SV are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Hansa Rostock 1W, Hamburger SV 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 48% versus Hamburger SV 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 48% | Hamburger SV 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.12 xG and Hamburger SV 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.802 / defence 1.023 | Hamburger SV attack 1.108 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.327. Data: 52 Hansa Rostock games / 52 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 46%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Hamburger SV 2.17. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hansa Rostock 40% | Hamburger SV 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.12 / Hamburger SV 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.802 / def 1.023 | Hamburger SV attack 1.108 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Hamburger SV xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 28% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV?
Record (3 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 2W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.11x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
28%
3.55
26%
3.89
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.62
1.50
Hamburger SV xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
6%
15.98
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.50 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 16W 14D 22L from 52 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 28W 12D 12L across 52 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 7W 6D 12L from 25 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 13W 6D 6L across 25 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.87 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 16W 14D 22L in their last 52 games (1.19 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 28W 12D 12L in their last 52 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.08 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Hansa Rostock or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 3-0 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Hansa Rostock 2-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 52%, Hamburger SV 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hansa Rostock) and 44% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV in 32%; Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 52% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 44% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Hansa Rostock 0-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.12 xG and Hamburger SV 1.50 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Hamburger SV attack 1.11 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 46%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 48%, Hamburger SV 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.