Hannover 96 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Hannover 96 welcome SV Darmstadt 98 to HDI-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hannover 96 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96 at HDI-Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at HDI-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SV Darmstadt 98 are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hannover 96, 1 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–4 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hannover 96 trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 38% versus SV Darmstadt 98 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 43% | SV Darmstadt 98 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 0.71 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.641 / defence 0.981 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.014 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.505. Hannover 96's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Hannover 96 games / 21 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 16% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 6.25 | Draw 3.33 | SV Darmstadt 98 1.85. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: HDI-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 16% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Hannover 96 0.71 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.641 / def 0.981 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.014 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.50
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at HDI-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Hannover 96 2 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at HDI-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 16% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 54% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): Hannover 96 0W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (0.64) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
16%
6.38
30%
3.30
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.21
1.50
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
6.38
16%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
4%
28.51
27%
3.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 16.5 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.50 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 6W 6D 9L from 21 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 12W 3D 6L across 21 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Darmstadt 98 by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hannover 96 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 3W 3D 4L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 6W 2D 2L across 10 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 12W 3D 6L in their last 21 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.20 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hannover 96's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hannover 96
1
Draws
5
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 30%, SV Darmstadt 98 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Hannover 96) and 60% (SV Darmstadt 98).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Hannover 96 have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 70% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Hannover 96's recent games and 60% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at HDI-Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 0.71 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hannover 96 beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.64 / defence 0.98 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 16% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 43%, SV Darmstadt 98 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.