Hannover 96 0-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hannover 96 at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hannover 96 welcome Hertha BSC to Heinz von Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 22 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hannover 96 have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hannover 96's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hannover 96 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hertha BSC stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Hertha BSC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Hannover 96 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Hannover 96's games and 90% of Hertha BSC's (from Hannover 96's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Hannover 96, 0 for Hertha BSC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2024, ended Hannover 96 1–1 Hertha BSC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hannover 96 60% and Hertha BSC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hannover 96 60% | Hertha BSC 76%). Note also that Hertha BSC surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Hannover 96 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.74 xG and Hertha BSC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.100 / defence 0.817 | Hertha BSC attack 1.138 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.533. Data: built from Hannover 96's last 50 games and Hertha BSC's last 50.
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 43% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 30%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 2.32 | Draw 3.67 | Hertha BSC 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hannover 96 at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hannover 96's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hannover 96 60% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 17 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 43% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Hannover 96 1.74 / Hertha BSC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.100 / def 0.817 | Hertha BSC attack 1.138 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Hertha BSC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC FAQs
What time does Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC?
Hannover 96 0 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC part of?
Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 17) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 43% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (1.10) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hannover 96's last 50 games and Hertha BSC's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.67
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
3.17
1.43
Hertha BSC xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
5%
19.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.43 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 21W 15D 14L from 50 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 19L across 50 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hannover 96 on 1.56 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 15W 6D 4L from their last 25 home games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Hannover 96 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 9W 5D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.92 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 74%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
Hannover 96 (Home) vs Hertha BSC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hannover 96
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC Form FAQs
What form are Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 21W 15D 14L in their last 50 games (1.56 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 19W 12D 19L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hannover 96's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 2.04 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Sep 2025, when Hertha BSC won Hannover 96 0-3 Hertha BSC.
Hannover 96's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hannover 96
4
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hannover 96 have won 1, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Hertha BSC 2-3 Hannover 96.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 89% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hannover 96 at 64%, Hertha BSC at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Hannover 96 and 76% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hannover 96's games and 80% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hannover 96's matches and 76% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 88% of Hertha BSC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hannover 96's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.74 xG and Hertha BSC 1.43 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hannover 96 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.10 / defence 0.82 against Hertha BSC attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 43% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 30%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 60%, Hertha BSC 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.56 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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