Hannover 96 2-0 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hannover 96 at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees 1. FC Nürnberg travel to Heinz von Heiden-Arena to take on Hannover 96. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hannover 96's home record at Heinz von Heiden-Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Hannover 96 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hannover 96, 1 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2024, ended 3–0 with Hannover 96 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hannover 96 62% and 1. FC Nürnberg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 60% | 1. FC Nürnberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.88 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.139 / defence 0.815 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.990 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.468. Data: 40 Hannover 96 games / 40 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 51% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 21%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Nürnberg 4.76. Hannover 96 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hannover 96 are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hannover 96 80% | 1. FC Nürnberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 51% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Hannover 96 1.88 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.139 / def 0.815 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.990 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.18
1. FC Nürnberg xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Hannover 96 2 - 0 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 51% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (6 meetings): Hannover 96 2W | Draws 3 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (1.14) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.63
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
3.07
1.18
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
3%
30.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.18 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Hannover 96 have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 16W 14D 10L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 13W 8D 19L from 40 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hannover 96 on 1.55 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hannover 96 have posted 1.95 PPG from 20 outings (11W 6D 3L).
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.27 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Early Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 16W 14D 10L in their last 40 games (1.55 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 13W 8D 19L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.95 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hannover 96's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hannover 96
4
Draws
2
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 4, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hannover 96 3-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hannover 96 at 65%, 1. FC Nürnberg at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Hannover 96 and 65% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hannover 96's games and 70% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hannover 96's matches and 65% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Hannover 96 and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hannover 96 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.88 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.14 / defence 0.81 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 51% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 21%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 60%, 1. FC Nürnberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.55 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.