Hamburger SV 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Hamburger SV) versus 1.90 (Fortuna Düsseldorf). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hamburger SV, 0 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 61% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 66% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.54 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.281 / defence 0.898 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.334 / defence 0.691. League average goals — home 1.744 / away 1.378. Hamburger SV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence strength of 0.691 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Hamburger SV games / 41 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hamburger SV 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Hamburger SV 1.54 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.281 / def 0.898 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.334 / def 0.691 | league avg home 1.744 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hamburger SV 1 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 35% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (4 meetings): Hamburger SV 1W | Draws 3 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.28x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
35%
2.84
25%
4.00
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.19
1.65
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.65 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV come into this having played 41 games, going 23W 7D 11L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.76 PPG from 41 outings (21W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.85 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hamburger SV's home form reads 14W 3D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.80 scored and 1.17 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 23W 7D 11L in their last 41 games (1.85 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.25 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hamburger SV go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Hamburger SV won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
3
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Hamburger SV 4-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 65%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hamburger SV and 55% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hamburger SV's games and 45% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hamburger SV's matches and 55% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hamburger SV defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.54 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.65 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.28 / defence 0.90 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.33 / defence 0.69, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 66%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.85 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.