Hamburger SV 4-0 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Erzgebirge AUE travel to Volksparkstadion to take on Hamburger SV. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 April 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Volksparkstadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Erzgebirge AUE have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzgebirge AUE's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Hamburger SV have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hamburger SV have won 0, Erzgebirge AUE 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hamburger SV trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Erzgebirge AUE trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 74% and Erzgebirge AUE 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 52% | Erzgebirge AUE 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.28 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.151 / defence 1.073 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.867 / defence 1.748. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.429. Erzgebirge AUE bring a strong defensive rating of 1.748 — this is suppressing Hamburger SV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Hamburger SV games / 27 Erzgebirge AUE games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 57% | Draw 23% | Erzgebirge AUE 20%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Erzgebirge AUE 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 70% | Erzgebirge AUE 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 57% | Draw 23% | Erzgebirge AUE 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Hamburger SV 2.28 / Erzgebirge AUE 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.151 / def 1.073 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.867 / def 1.748 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Erzgebirge AUE xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Hamburger SV 4 - 0 Erzgebirge AUE.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE part of?
Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 57% chance of winning, Erzgebirge AUE a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hamburger SV and Erzgebirge AUE will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Erzgebirge AUE?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 1 | Erzgebirge AUE 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Erzgebirge AUE in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Erzgebirge AUE's defensive record (1.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. The same calculation in reverse, Erzgebirge AUE's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
57%
1.74
23%
4.42
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.61
1.33
Erzgebirge AUE xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
10%
9.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
2%
48.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Erzgebirge AUE expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.33 for Erzgebirge AUE, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 10W 12D 5L from 27 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Erzgebirge AUE, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 16L across 27 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Erzgebirge AUE heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 6W 5D 2L from 13 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Erzgebirge AUE's away record stands at 1W 5D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Erzgebirge AUE are on 0.96 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Erzgebirge AUE in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 10W 12D 5L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while Erzgebirge AUE have gone 4W 7D 16L in their last 27 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Erzgebirge AUE away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.77 PPG; Erzgebirge AUE away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
0
Erzgebirge AUE
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Erzgebirge AUE?
From 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 1, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Erzgebirge AUE last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2022, when Hamburger SV 4-0 Erzgebirge AUE.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Erzgebirge AUE?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 77%, Erzgebirge AUE at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hamburger SV and 69% for Erzgebirge AUE. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Erzgebirge AUE away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Erzgebirge AUE?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Hamburger SV's games and 69% of Erzgebirge AUE's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Erzgebirge AUE usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hamburger SV's matches and 69% of Erzgebirge AUE's.
Do Hamburger SV and Erzgebirge AUE tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Erzgebirge AUE.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Erzgebirge AUE 4-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.28 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.33 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Erzgebirge AUE landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.15 / defence 1.07 against Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.87 / defence 1.75, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 57% | Draw 23% | Erzgebirge AUE 20%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 52%, Erzgebirge AUE 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.