Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-2 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Holstein Kiel travel to Merkur Spiel-Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 August 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 1W 0D 4L from 5 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.00 PPG, Holstein Kiel 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Holstein Kiel trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Fortuna Düsseldorf 33% | Holstein Kiel 0%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Düsseldorf 33% | Holstein Kiel 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.45 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.072 / defence 1.331 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.692 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 1.383. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 3 Holstein Kiel games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 38% | Draw 33% | Holstein Kiel 30%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Holstein Kiel 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Fortuna Düsseldorf 33% | Holstein Kiel 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 38% | Draw 33% | Holstein Kiel 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.45 / Holstein Kiel 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.072 / def 1.331 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.692 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.023 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Holstein Kiel xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 2 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 38% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.07x the league average against Holstein Kiel's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
38%
2.66
33%
3.05
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.72
1.27
Holstein Kiel xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.27 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 0%.
Last 3 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Holstein Kiel have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
4
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Fortuna Düsseldorf 33% BTTS, Holstein Kiel 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 100% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf have failed to score in 33% of games; Holstein Kiel in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Holstein Kiel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 0% of Holstein Kiel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 100% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.45 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.27 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.07 / defence 1.33 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 38% | Draw 33% | Holstein Kiel 30%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 33%, Holstein Kiel 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Holstein Kiel scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.