Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome 1. FC Nürnberg to Merkur Spiel-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 7W 3D 0L at Merkur Spiel-Arena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at Merkur Spiel-Arena than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Nürnberg — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 2 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.68 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.422 / defence 0.941 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.876 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.284. Fortuna Düsseldorf carry an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — their λ of 2.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 45 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 71% | Draw 17% | 1. FC Nürnberg 12%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | 1. FC Nürnberg 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.68 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.74 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 71% | Draw 17% | 1. FC Nürnberg 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 62% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.68 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.422 / def 0.941 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.876 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.06
1. FC Nürnberg xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 71% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (2 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.42x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.5%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.87
12%
8.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.74
1.06
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
8.42
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
7%
14.63
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
1%
123.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.06 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 13D 16L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (17W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.36 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 10W 7D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.33 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 16W 13D 16L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 17W 10D 18L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.68 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
5
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 73%, 1. FC Nürnberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 59% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 54% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Nürnberg defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.68 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.06 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 2.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.42 / defence 0.94 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 71% | Draw 17% | 1. FC Nürnberg 12%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Nürnberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, 1. FC Nürnberg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.36 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.