FC St. Pauli 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees SSV Jahn Regensburg travel to Millerntor-Stadion to take on FC St. Pauli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli at Millerntor-Stadion this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Millerntor-Stadion this season.
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC St. Pauli, 1 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 58% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 59% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.50 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.003 / defence 0.705 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.871 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.272. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.705 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 FC St. Pauli games / 59 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 54% | Draw 26% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 19%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 5.26. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 40% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 54% | Draw 26% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.50 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.003 / def 0.705 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.871 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.78
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 54% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (3 meetings): FC St. Pauli 2W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.82
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.28
0.78
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
4%
23.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.78 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 59 games, going 27W 17D 15L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SSV Jahn Regensburg sit at 1.12 PPG from 59 outings (17W 15D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 18W 9D 2L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SSV Jahn Regensburg have taken 0.93 points per game from 29 outings (7W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.27 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 27W 17D 15L in their last 59 games (1.66 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 17W 15D 27L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.17 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 52%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (FC St. Pauli) and 45% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 38% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 45% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.50 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.78 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.00 / defence 0.70 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 54% | Draw 26% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 19%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 59%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.