FC St. Pauli 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to Millerntor-Stadion to face FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 18 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 7W 2D 1L at Millerntor-Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for FC St. Pauli, 1.50 for 1. FC Heidenheim — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 4–2 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 65% and 1. FC Heidenheim 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC St. Pauli 77% | 1. FC Heidenheim 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.94 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.242 / defence 1.157 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.683 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.494. 1. FC Heidenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 FC St. Pauli games / 26 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 52% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Heidenheim 5.00. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 52% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.94 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.242 / def 1.157 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.683 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.18
1. FC Heidenheim xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 52% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.68x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.56
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.12
1.18
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
3%
34.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.18 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 14W 6D 6L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 12W 6D 8L from 26 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.62 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.42 PPG from 12 outings (9W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 2D 7L from 12 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 14W 6D 6L in their last 26 games (1.85 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.42 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 8 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 5, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 58%, 1. FC Heidenheim 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 92% for FC St. Pauli and 50% for 1. FC Heidenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; 1. FC Heidenheim in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 42% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.94 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.18 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.24 / defence 1.16 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.68 / defence 1.35, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 52% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 20%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 77%, 1. FC Heidenheim 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.85 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.