FC Schalke 04 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Schalke 04 host SSV Jahn Regensburg at VELTINS-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04's home record at VELTINS-Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 4W 2D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.56 PPG. Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Schalke 04 at 1.50 PPG versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–4 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Schalke 04 trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Schalke 04 60% and SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Schalke 04 60% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.89 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.396 / defence 1.175 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.920 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.444. FC Schalke 04 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 FC Schalke 04 games / 20 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 44% | Draw 26% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Schalke 04 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 80% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 44% | Draw 26% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.89 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.396 / def 1.175 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.920 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.56
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
FC Schalke 04 2 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 44% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (1 meetings): FC Schalke 04 0W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Schalke 04's attack at 1.40x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.84
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.46
1.56
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
5%
22.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.56 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, FC Schalke 04 have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 10W 4D 6L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 9W 4D 7L from 20 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Schalke 04 on 1.70 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Schalke 04 have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.95 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 60%.
Defensively: FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 games (1.70 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.89 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.56 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when SSV Jahn Regensburg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Schalke 04
0
Draws
2
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 FC Schalke 04.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 78%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for FC Schalke 04 and 56% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of FC Schalke 04's games and 33% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 56% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.89 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.56 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.40 / defence 1.18 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 44% | Draw 26% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 60%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.70 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.