FC Schalke 04 3-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Schalke 04 at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to VELTINS-Arena to face FC Schalke 04 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Schalke 04's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at VELTINS-Arena, FC Schalke 04 have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC St. Pauli's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. FC Schalke 04's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of FC St. Pauli's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Schalke 04 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FC St. Pauli in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Schalke 04 lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Schalke 04 half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Schalke 04 66% and FC St. Pauli 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Schalke 04 69% | FC St. Pauli 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.94 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.318 / defence 1.286 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.832 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.441. FC Schalke 04 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing FC Schalke 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 FC Schalke 04 games / 32 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 45% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | FC St. Pauli 3.57. FC Schalke 04 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Schalke 04 are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 80% | FC St. Pauli 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 45% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.94 / FC St. Pauli 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.318 / def 1.286 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.832 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.54
FC St. Pauli xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
FC Schalke 04 3 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 45% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli?
Record (1 meetings): FC Schalke 04 0W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Schalke 04's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.83x) against FC Schalke 04's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
45%
2.25
27%
3.69
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.48
1.54
FC St. Pauli xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
14%
6.93
Win to Nil
10%
10.51
4%
24.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.54 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Schalke 04 come into this having played 32 games, going 18W 5D 9L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 1.69 PPG from 32 outings (15W 9D 8L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for FC Schalke 04 against 1.69 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Schalke 04's home form reads 9W 2D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.25 points per game from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.78 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; FC St. Pauli in 66%.
Last 32 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 18W 5D 9L in their last 32 games (1.84 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 15W 9D 8L in their last 32 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.81 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.25 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Schalke 04 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Schalke 04
0
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when FC Schalke 04 3-1 FC St. Pauli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for FC Schalke 04, 69% for FC St. Pauli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for FC Schalke 04 and 56% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Schalke 04's games and 69% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 56% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out FC St. Pauli 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat FC St. Pauli 3-2 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.94 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.54 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.32 / defence 1.29 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.83 / defence 1.29, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 45% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 28%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 69%, FC St. Pauli 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.84 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.