FC Ingolstadt 04 1-2 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as FC Ingolstadt 04 take on Hannover 96.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96 meet at Audi-Sportpark in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Ingolstadt 04's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Ingolstadt 04 at Audi-Sportpark this season: 0W 3D 4L from 7 home games — 0.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hannover 96 (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hannover 96 have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Hannover 96 are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
FC Ingolstadt 04 — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Hannover 96 — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 50% versus Hannover 96 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Ingolstadt 04 62% | Hannover 96 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 1.05 xG and Hannover 96 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.612 / defence 1.341 | Hannover 96 attack 0.635 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.291. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.612 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hannover 96 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing FC Ingolstadt 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 16 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 30% | Draw 37% | Hannover 96 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Hannover 96 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Ingolstadt 04 57% | Hannover 96 38%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 30% | Draw 37% | Hannover 96 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 1.05 / Hannover 96 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.612 / def 1.341 | Hannover 96 attack 0.635 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Hannover 96 xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96 kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96?
FC Ingolstadt 04 1 - 2 Hannover 96.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96 part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 30% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96 in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Hannover 96 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Ingolstadt 04's attack rating (0.61) and Hannover 96's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hannover 96's attack (0.64x) against FC Ingolstadt 04's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.31
37%
2.69
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.15
1.10
Hannover 96 xG
3.31
30%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.10 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, FC Ingolstadt 04 have picked up 0.44 PPG on a 1W 4D 11L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96's form line: 4W 5D 7L from 16 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hannover 96 are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Ingolstadt 04.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 0.43 PPG from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 0.69 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 4D 11L in their last 16 games (0.44 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or Hannover 96 away?
Hannover 96's away record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.43 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 0.71 PPG.
Have FC Ingolstadt 04 or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
Draws
2
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, Hannover 96 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Hannover 96 3-2 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Ingolstadt 04 see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 57%, Hannover 96 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC Ingolstadt 04) and 57% (Hannover 96). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 43% of games; Hannover 96 in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play Hannover 96?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent matches and 29% of Hannover 96's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 57% of Hannover 96's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out FC Ingolstadt 04 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 1-2 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 1.05 xG and Hannover 96 1.10 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hannover 96 outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.61 / defence 1.34 against Hannover 96 attack 0.64 / defence 1.34, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 30% | Draw 37% | Hannover 96 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hannover 96 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 62%, Hannover 96 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.