FC Ingolstadt 04 0-4 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Ingolstadt 04 host Hamburger SV at Audi-Sportpark in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Ingolstadt 04 — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 2W 2D 6L at Audi-Sportpark — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hamburger SV's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hamburger SV — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, Hamburger SV 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 48% versus Hamburger SV 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Ingolstadt 04 61% | Hamburger SV 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 0.91 xG and Hamburger SV 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.726 / defence 1.240 | Hamburger SV attack 0.952 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.476. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 31 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 17% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 5.88 | Draw 3.45 | Hamburger SV 1.85. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FC Ingolstadt 04 40% | Hamburger SV 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 17% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 0.91 / Hamburger SV 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.726 / def 1.240 | Hamburger SV attack 0.952 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Hamburger SV xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV?
FC Ingolstadt 04 0 - 4 Hamburger SV.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 17% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): FC Ingolstadt 04 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 1W.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hamburger SV in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Ingolstadt 04's attack rating (0.73) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus FC Ingolstadt 04's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
17%
5.97
29%
3.47
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.65
1.74
Hamburger SV xG
5.97
17%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
3%
34.01
22%
4.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.4 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.74 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, FC Ingolstadt 04 have picked up 0.65 PPG on a 4W 8D 19L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Hamburger SV's form line: 13W 12D 6L from 31 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Ingolstadt 04.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 0.67 PPG from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 5W 6D 4L from 15 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.87 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 68%.
Last 31 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 4W 8D 19L in their last 31 games (0.65 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 13W 12D 6L in their last 31 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.67 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 0-4 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 47%, Hamburger SV 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (FC Ingolstadt 04) and 40% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FC Ingolstadt 04's games and 67% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent games and 40% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Ingolstadt 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat FC Ingolstadt 04 0-4 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 0.91 xG and Hamburger SV 1.74 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Ingolstadt 04 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.73 / defence 1.24 against Hamburger SV attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 17% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 54%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 61%, Hamburger SV 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.65. Form held, and they took the win. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.