FC Ingolstadt 04 1-3 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Audi-Sportpark to face FC Ingolstadt 04 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Ingolstadt 04 at Audi-Sportpark this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, FC St. Pauli are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Ingolstadt 04 lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–4 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Ingolstadt 04 — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 48% versus FC St. Pauli 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Ingolstadt 04 61% | FC St. Pauli 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 1.12 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.695 / defence 1.090 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.907 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.453. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing FC Ingolstadt 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 23 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 26% | Draw 33% | FC St. Pauli 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | FC St. Pauli 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Ingolstadt 04 40% | FC St. Pauli 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 26% | Draw 33% | FC St. Pauli 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 1.12 / FC St. Pauli 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.695 / def 1.090 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.907 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.44
FC St. Pauli xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
FC Ingolstadt 04 1 - 3 FC St. Pauli.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 26% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and FC St. Pauli?
Record (1 meetings): FC Ingolstadt 04 0W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and FC St. Pauli in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Ingolstadt 04's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.91x) against FC Ingolstadt 04's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
26%
3.85
33%
3.02
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.56
1.44
FC St. Pauli xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
6%
16.20
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.44 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, FC Ingolstadt 04 have picked up 0.65 PPG on a 3W 6D 14L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 12W 5D 6L from 23 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Ingolstadt 04.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 0.64 PPG from 11 outings (1W 4D 6L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 4W 2D 5L from 11 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.96 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli in 61%.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 3W 6D 14L in their last 23 games (0.65 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 12W 5D 6L in their last 23 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.64 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and FC St. Pauli?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 1-3 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 46%, FC St. Pauli 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 73% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 46% of games; FC St. Pauli in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of FC Ingolstadt 04's games and 73% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 73% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Ingolstadt 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat FC Ingolstadt 04 1-3 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 1.12 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.44 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC St. Pauli outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.69 / defence 1.09 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.91 / defence 1.41, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 26% | Draw 33% | FC St. Pauli 41%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 61%, FC St. Pauli 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.