FC Ingolstadt 04 0-0 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 4 as FC Ingolstadt 04 welcome 1. FC Nürnberg to Audi-Sportpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 stand at 0W 0D 3L from 3 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 3.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Ingolstadt 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 1W 2D 0L from 3 outings — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. 1. FC Nürnberg's 1.67 PPG return is 1.67 points per game ahead of FC Ingolstadt 04's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
FC Ingolstadt 04 trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 67% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Ingolstadt 04 100% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 1.20 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.922 / defence 1.269 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.930 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.336. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing FC Ingolstadt 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 3 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 26% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Ingolstadt 04 67% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 26% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 1.20 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.922 / def 1.269 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.930 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.57
1. FC Nürnberg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC Ingolstadt 04 0 - 0 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 26% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 3.67 | L5 L-L-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Ingolstadt 04's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus FC Ingolstadt 04's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
26%
3.90
32%
3.13
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.78
1.57
1. FC Nürnberg xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
5%
18.85
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.57 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Ingolstadt 04 come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 0D 3L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 3.67 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Ingolstadt 04 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Early Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have FC Ingolstadt 04 or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Ingolstadt 04
1
Draws
0
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2022, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-5 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 67%, 1. FC Nürnberg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 33% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 67%; FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 33% of games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent matches and 33% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 33% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Ingolstadt 04's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg finished level at 0-0 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 1.20 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Ingolstadt 04 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. 1. FC Nürnberg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.93 / defence 1.20, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 26% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 42%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 100%, 1. FC Nürnberg 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Ingolstadt 04 conceded 0 against a 3.67 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Nürnberg managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.