1. FC Heidenheim 3-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as 1. FC Heidenheim welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Voith-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Heidenheim at 1.50 PPG versus SC Paderborn 07's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 54% versus SC Paderborn 07 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | SC Paderborn 07 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.45 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.223 / defence 0.974 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.984 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.269. Data: 48 1. FC Heidenheim games / 48 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 41% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 31%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 70% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 41% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.45 / SC Paderborn 07 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.223 / def 0.974 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.984 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.22
SC Paderborn 07 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 41% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 1W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 1.22x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.55
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.66
1.22
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.22 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 21W 13D 14L from 48 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 13L across 48 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.58 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 14W 6D 3L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 11W 7D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.88 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 21W 13D 14L in their last 48 games (1.58 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 21W 14D 13L in their last 48 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.09 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.74 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2022, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 70%, SC Paderborn 07 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 61% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 35%; SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 52% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 61% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Heidenheim run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SC Paderborn 07 3-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.45 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.22 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.22 / defence 0.97 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 0.83, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 41% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 31%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, SC Paderborn 07 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.58 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.