1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 81%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as 1. FC Heidenheim welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Voith-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 0.71 xG and SC Paderborn 07 3.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 3.069. Data: 0 1. FC Heidenheim games / 0 SC Paderborn 07 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 4% | Draw 14% | SC Paderborn 07 81%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 25.00 | Draw 7.14 | SC Paderborn 07 1.23. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (81%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 81% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 4% | Draw 14% | SC Paderborn 07 81% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 50% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 0.71 / SC Paderborn 07 3.00 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 3.069 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
3.00
SC Paderborn 07 xG
50%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 4% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 81% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.85x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 3.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (11.1%), 0-4 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
4%
23.53
14%
7.00
81%
1.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
11.1%
Away win
0 – 4
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.71
3.00
SC Paderborn 07 xG
23.53
4%
Home win
7.00
14%
Draw
1.23
81%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
5%
20.09
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
0%
–
40%
2.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 3.00 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Pre-Season
SC Paderborn 07
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2022, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at 1. FC Heidenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 0-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 0.71 xG and SC Paderborn 07 3.00 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 landed 3.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 4% | Draw 14% | SC Paderborn 07 81%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.