1. FC Heidenheim 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees SSV Jahn Regensburg travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 4W 3D 1L at Voith-Arena — 1.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record: 3W 2D 2L from 7 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.80 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 47% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 53% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.948 / defence 1.041 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.942 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.309. Data: 15 1. FC Heidenheim games / 15 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 35% | Draw 34% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 31%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 62% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 43%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 35% | Draw 34% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.948 / def 1.041 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.942 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 35% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.95) and SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
35%
2.86
34%
2.98
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.65
1.28
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.28 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 15 games, going 7W 3D 5L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SSV Jahn Regensburg sit at 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.60 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SSV Jahn Regensburg have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 2.20 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 67%.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.00 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 71%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 43% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 43% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 43% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Heidenheim run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 35% | Draw 34% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 31%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 53%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.60 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.