1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Hansa Rostock travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hansa Rostock — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
1. FC Heidenheim are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0 for Hansa Rostock and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 55% versus Hansa Rostock 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 57% | Hansa Rostock 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.95 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.400 / defence 1.068 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.989 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.308. 1. FC Heidenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 1. FC Heidenheim games / 51 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 27%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Hansa Rostock 3.70. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 70% | Hansa Rostock 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.95 / Hansa Rostock 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.400 / def 1.068 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.989 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Hansa Rostock xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 51% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 1W | Draws 2 | Hansa Rostock 0W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 1.40x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.51
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.33
1.38
Hansa Rostock xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
4%
25.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.38 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 24W 13D 14L from 51 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 21L across 51 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Heidenheim by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 16W 6D 3L from 25 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 9W 8D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.14 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 51 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 24W 13D 14L in their last 51 games (1.67 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 16W 14D 21L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Hansa Rostock away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.16 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
0
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, Hansa Rostock have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 68%, Hansa Rostock 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 56% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Hansa Rostock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 44% of Hansa Rostock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 56% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Hansa Rostock 2-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.95 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.38 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hansa Rostock landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.40 / defence 1.07 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 27%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 57%, Hansa Rostock 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.