1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as 1. FC Heidenheim welcome Hamburger SV to Voith-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 1W 2D 1L from 4 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D W D L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have recorded 1W 2D 1L from 4 outings — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.25 PPG (1. FC Heidenheim) versus 1.25 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Hamburger SV trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 50% and Hamburger SV 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 25% | Hamburger SV 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.14 xG and Hamburger SV 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.824 / defence 0.913 | Hamburger SV attack 1.072 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.414. Hamburger SV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 1. FC Heidenheim games / 4 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 27% | Draw 34% | Hamburger SV 39%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Hamburger SV 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 50% | Hamburger SV 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 27% | Draw 34% | Hamburger SV 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.14 / Hamburger SV 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.824 / def 0.913 | Hamburger SV attack 1.072 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Hamburger SV xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 0 Hamburger SV.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 27% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-W-D-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.82) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
27%
3.68
34%
2.92
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.52
1.38
Hamburger SV xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
7%
14.70
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.38 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.25 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.00 scored and 1.75 conceded. Hamburger SV's attacking output running into 1. FC Heidenheim's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 100%.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
Hamburger SV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hamburger SV have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Heidenheim at 50%, Hamburger SV at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 75% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 100% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 75% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Heidenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 5, as 1. FC Heidenheim and Hamburger SV drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.14 xG and Hamburger SV 1.38 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hamburger SV landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against Hamburger SV attack 1.07 / defence 1.31, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 27% | Draw 34% | Hamburger SV 39%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 25%, Hamburger SV 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.25 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.