1. FC Heidenheim 3-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Braunschweig meet at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Heidenheim's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 7W 1D 2L at Voith-Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Braunschweig have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. 1. FC Heidenheim's 1.60 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Eintracht Braunschweig's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.79 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.014 / defence 0.982 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.329. Data: 35 1. FC Heidenheim games / 1 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.55. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.79 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.014 / def 0.982 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 51% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Braunschweig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (1.01) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.85x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
51%
1.94
27%
3.72
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.90
1.11
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
4%
27.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.11 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 0%.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Eintracht Braunschweig 2-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 0% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 0% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Heidenheim run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.79 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 51% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 0%, Eintracht Braunschweig 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Heidenheim scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Eintracht Braunschweig shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.