Erzgebirge AUE 1-3 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Erzgebirge AUE take on SV Sandhausen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Erzgebirge AUE host SV Sandhausen at Erzgebirgsstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Erzgebirge AUE stand at 0W 3D 0L from 3 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Erzgebirge AUE have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Sandhausen have recorded 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SV Sandhausen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Erzgebirge AUE have the edge — a 0.67 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Erzgebirge AUE in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
SV Sandhausen in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Erzgebirge AUE 33% | SV Sandhausen 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Erzgebirge AUE 0% | SV Sandhausen 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.07 xG and SV Sandhausen 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.762 / defence 1.002 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.705 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.336. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Sandhausen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Erzgebirge AUE games / 3 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 34% | Draw 39% | SV Sandhausen 27%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 2.94 | Draw 2.56 | SV Sandhausen 3.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Erzgebirge AUE 33% | SV Sandhausen 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 34% | Draw 39% | SV Sandhausen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.07 / SV Sandhausen 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.762 / def 1.002 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.705 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
0.94
SV Sandhausen xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen?
Erzgebirge AUE 1 - 3 SV Sandhausen.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 34% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 27% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and SV Sandhausen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and SV Sandhausen in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 D-D-D. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Erzgebirge AUE's attack at 0.76x the league average against SV Sandhausen's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Sandhausen's attack versus Erzgebirge AUE's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
39%
2.58
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.01
0.94
SV Sandhausen xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 0.94 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Erzgebirge AUE have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 3D 0L record — D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Sandhausen's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-D. It's still early in the season for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Erzgebirge AUE are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Sandhausen.
Goals in Recent Form
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 0.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen in 0%.
Defensively: Erzgebirge AUE have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Early Season
SV Sandhausen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Erzgebirge AUE or SV Sandhausen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzgebirge AUE have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, SV Sandhausen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Erzgebirge AUE
0
Draws
2
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and SV Sandhausen?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, SV Sandhausen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when SV Sandhausen 2-0 Erzgebirge AUE.
Who has won more matches between Erzgebirge AUE and SV Sandhausen?
SV Sandhausen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Erzgebirge AUE see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Erzgebirge AUE 33% BTTS, SV Sandhausen 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Erzgebirge AUE and 33% for SV Sandhausen.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; SV Sandhausen in 33%; Erzgebirge AUE have failed to score in 67% of games; SV Sandhausen in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play SV Sandhausen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent matches and 0% of SV Sandhausen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent games and 33% of SV Sandhausen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
SV Sandhausen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Erzgebirge AUE.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Sandhausen beat Erzgebirge AUE 1-3 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.07 xG and SV Sandhausen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SV Sandhausen outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.76 / defence 1.00 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.70 / defence 1.29, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 34% | Draw 39% | SV Sandhausen 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual SV Sandhausen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 0%, SV Sandhausen 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Erzgebirge AUE arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with SV Sandhausen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Erzgebirge AUE shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Sandhausen scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.