Erzgebirge AUE 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Erzgebirge AUE take on Fortuna Düsseldorf.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Erzgebirge AUE and Fortuna Düsseldorf meet at Erzgebirgsstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Erzgebirge AUE (all games): 0W 3D 2L across 5 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Erzgebirge AUE have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Erzgebirge AUE — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzgebirge AUE 40% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 40% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.18 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.757 / defence 1.272 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.765 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.304. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Erzgebirge AUE games / 5 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 30% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 35%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Erzgebirge AUE 40% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 30% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 54% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.18 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.757 / def 1.272 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.765 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Erzgebirge AUE 0 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 30% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Erzgebirge AUE's attack at 0.76x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.77x) against Erzgebirge AUE's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.30
35%
2.85
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.45
1.27
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
9%
11.76
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 1.27 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Erzgebirge AUE have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 0W 3D 2L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.60 PPG for Erzgebirge AUE against 0.80 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60%.
Defensively: Erzgebirge AUE have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Erzgebirge AUE or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzgebirge AUE have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Erzgebirge AUE
0
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 Erzgebirge AUE.
Who has won more matches between Erzgebirge AUE and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Erzgebirge AUE see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzgebirge AUE 40%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Erzgebirge AUE) and 60% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Erzgebirge AUE have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent matches and 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent games and 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out Erzgebirge AUE 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Erzgebirge AUE 0-1 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.18 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.27 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Erzgebirge AUE fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.76 / defence 1.27 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 30% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 35%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 40%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Erzgebirge AUE 0.60 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.