Erzgebirge AUE 0-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Erzgebirgsstadion to face Erzgebirge AUE in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Erzgebirge AUE (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Erzgebirge AUE have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC St. Pauli are 2.00 PPG clear of Erzgebirge AUE in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Erzgebirge AUE have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, FC St. Pauli in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.08 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.970 / defence 1.150 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.401. Data: 1 Erzgebirge AUE games / 1 FC St. Pauli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 26% | Draw 35% | FC St. Pauli 40%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | FC St. Pauli 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 26% | Draw 35% | FC St. Pauli 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.08 / FC St. Pauli 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.970 / def 1.150 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FC St. Pauli xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli?
Erzgebirge AUE 0 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 26% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and FC St. Pauli in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Erzgebirge AUE's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.85x) against Erzgebirge AUE's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
26%
3.90
35%
2.89
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.45
1.37
FC St. Pauli xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
7%
15.34
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 1.37 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Erzgebirge AUE have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Erzgebirge AUE.
Attack vs Defence
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. FC St. Pauli's attacking output running into Erzgebirge AUE's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Erzgebirge AUE have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; FC St. Pauli in 0%.
Defensively: Erzgebirge AUE have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; FC St. Pauli in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Erzgebirge AUE or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzgebirge AUE have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Erzgebirge AUE
2
Draws
0
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and FC St. Pauli?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, FC St. Pauli have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when FC St. Pauli 2-2 Erzgebirge AUE.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent matches and 0% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent games and 100% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Erzgebirge AUE's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Erzgebirge AUE and FC St. Pauli finished level at 0-0 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.08 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.37 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Erzgebirge AUE fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC St. Pauli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 26% | Draw 35% | FC St. Pauli 40%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 0%, FC St. Pauli 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC St. Pauli managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.