Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Eintracht Braunschweig face Hertha BSC.

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Fixture Analysis

Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hertha BSC to Eintracht-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Hertha BSC — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Eintracht Braunschweig) versus 1.60 (Hertha BSC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 80% of Hertha BSC's (from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, Hertha BSC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Eintracht Braunschweig 0–3 Hertha BSC — a Hertha BSC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 57% and Hertha BSC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 55% | Hertha BSC 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.66 xG and Hertha BSC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.887 / defence 0.870 | Hertha BSC attack 0.983 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.402. Data: built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 56 games and Hertha BSC's last 22.

Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 48% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 28%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.08 | Draw 4.12 | Hertha BSC 3.62. Eintracht Braunschweig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Braunschweig 60% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 80% (last 10 away games).

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