Dynamo Dresden 0-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion plays host to Dynamo Dresden versus SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Dynamo Dresden's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Dresden at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, SV Darmstadt 98 are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dynamo Dresden 0W, SV Darmstadt 98 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Dynamo Dresden half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Dresden 39% versus SV Darmstadt 98 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Dresden 52% | SV Darmstadt 98 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Dresden 1.11 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.902 / defence 1.163 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.054 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.470. Data: 23 Dynamo Dresden games / 23 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 20% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 50%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Dresden 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.00. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Dresden 40% | SV Darmstadt 98 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 20% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Dynamo Dresden 1.11 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.902 / def 1.163 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.054 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Dynamo Dresden xG
Expected Goals
1.80
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What was the final score in Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Dynamo Dresden 0 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What competition is Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Dresden a 20% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Dresden 0W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dynamo Dresden's attack rating (0.90) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.05x) against Dynamo Dresden's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
20%
5.00
30%
3.37
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Dynamo Dresden xG
Total xG
2.91
1.80
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
5.00
20%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
16%
6.06
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
3%
30.28
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.80 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dynamo Dresden come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 5D 11L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Dynamo Dresden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dynamo Dresden's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Dynamo Dresden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.91 points per game from 11 outings (6W 3D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Dynamo Dresden are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.09 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Dynamo Dresden have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 12W 5D 6L in their last 23 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Dresden at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Dresden at home: 1.55 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Dynamo Dresden or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Dresden have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo Dresden have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dynamo Dresden
0
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, Dynamo Dresden have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Dynamo Dresden 3-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Dresden 36%, SV Darmstadt 98 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dynamo Dresden) and 64% (SV Darmstadt 98).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Dresden keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Dynamo Dresden have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Dresden home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Dresden play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Dynamo Dresden's recent matches and 73% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Dynamo Dresden's recent games and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Dynamo Dresden have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out Dynamo Dresden 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Dynamo Dresden 0-1 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 1.11 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.80 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo Dresden fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 20% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 50%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 52%, SV Darmstadt 98 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.