Arminia Bielefeld 4-2 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 40%, yet in-form Holstein Kiel provide a compelling counter-argument — this Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld host Holstein Kiel at SchücoArena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Arminia Bielefeld — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SchücoArena, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Holstein Kiel — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 50% versus Holstein Kiel 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 40% | Holstein Kiel 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.78 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.881 / defence 1.285 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.969 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.357. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Arminia Bielefeld games / 42 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 40% | Draw 23% | Holstein Kiel 37%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Holstein Kiel 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arminia Bielefeld at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Holstein Kiel (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 50% | Holstein Kiel 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 40% | Draw 23% | Holstein Kiel 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.78 / Holstein Kiel 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.881 / def 1.285 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.969 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Holstein Kiel xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel?
Arminia Bielefeld 4 - 2 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 40% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.88x the league average against Holstein Kiel's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
40%
2.48
23%
4.36
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.47
1.69
Holstein Kiel xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
7%
13.41
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.69 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 6W 15D 21L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel's form line: 15W 12D 15L from 42 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arminia Bielefeld.
Venue Form
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (3W 10D 7L).
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 5W 8D 7L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.43 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 6W 15D 21L in their last 42 games (0.79 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 15W 12D 15L in their last 42 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 0.95 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Arminia Bielefeld
1
Draws
0
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Arminia Bielefeld at 55%, Holstein Kiel at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 70% (Holstein Kiel). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 85% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 70% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat Holstein Kiel 4-2 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.78 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.69 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.88 / defence 1.28 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.97 / defence 1.31, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 40% | Draw 23% | Holstein Kiel 37%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 40%, Holstein Kiel 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.