Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Hertha BSC travel to to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Arminia Bielefeld 1.40 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arminia Bielefeld register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, Hertha BSC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 6–1 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hertha BSC trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 65% versus Hertha BSC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 57% | Hertha BSC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 2.14 xG and Hertha BSC 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.189 / defence 0.826 | Hertha BSC attack 1.295 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.533. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Arminia Bielefeld games / 37 Hertha BSC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 49% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 30%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | Hertha BSC 3.33. Arminia Bielefeld hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arminia Bielefeld are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 70% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 49% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 2.14 / Hertha BSC 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.189 / def 0.826 | Hertha BSC attack 1.295 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Hertha BSC xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 March 2027.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 49% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 30% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
Record (6 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 2W | Draws 3 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
49%
2.02
21%
4.82
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.78
1.64
Hertha BSC xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
3%
28.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.64 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 9D 17L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.62 PPG from 37 outings (17W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Arminia Bielefeld are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 1.89 points per game from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.54 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hertha BSC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
Hertha BSC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 11W 9D 17L in their last 37 games (1.14 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 17W 9D 11L in their last 37 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.61 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 67%, Hertha BSC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Arminia Bielefeld and 61% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 50% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 61% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.