Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Hannover 96 (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Arminia Bielefeld face Hannover 96.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hannover 96 make the trip to SchücoArena to face Arminia Bielefeld in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Arminia Bielefeld's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 4W 2D 4L at SchücoArena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hannover 96 (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hannover 96 are 0.80 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hannover 96 in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Hannover 96 have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Arminia Bielefeld's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Hannover 96 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hannover 96 have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arminia Bielefeld 61% and Hannover 96 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Arminia Bielefeld 52% | Hannover 96 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.65 xG and Hannover 96 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.016 / defence 1.119 | Hannover 96 attack 1.219 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.353. Hannover 96 have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Arminia Bielefeld games / 57 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 33% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 41%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Hannover 96 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hannover 96 are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | Hannover 96 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 33% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.65 / Hannover 96 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.016 / def 1.119 | Hannover 96 attack 1.219 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Hannover 96 xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96 kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96 part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 33% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hannover 96?
Record (3 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 0 | Hannover 96 3W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hannover 96 in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Hannover 96 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 1.02x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hannover 96's attack (1.22x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
33%
3.01
25%
3.93
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.49
1.84
Hannover 96 xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
5%
19.04
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.84 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 6D 10L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hannover 96 sit at 1.83 PPG from 23 outings (12W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Hannover 96 have taken 1.73 points per game from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.78 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Hannover 96 in 61%.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 12W 6D 5L in their last 23 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Hannover 96 away?
Hannover 96's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.55 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Hannover 96 have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hannover 96 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
0
Draws
4
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hannover 96?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, Hannover 96 have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Arminia Bielefeld, 82% for Hannover 96 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Arminia Bielefeld and 91% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 82% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 91% of Hannover 96's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out Arminia Bielefeld 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.65 xG and Hannover 96 1.84 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hannover 96 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Hannover 96 attack 1.22 / defence 1.03, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 33% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 41%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 52%, Hannover 96 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Hannover 96's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.