1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg host Werder Bremen at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 2D 0L this season (6 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.17 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Max-Morlock-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
1. FC Nürnberg are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 33% versus Werder Bremen 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 42% | Werder Bremen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.63 xG and Werder Bremen 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.018 / defence 0.732 | Werder Bremen attack 0.779 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.348. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 12 1. FC Nürnberg games / 12 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 55% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 14%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.82 | Draw 3.23 | Werder Bremen 7.14. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (55%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 17% | Werder Bremen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 55% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.63 / Werder Bremen 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.018 / def 0.732 | Werder Bremen attack 0.779 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Werder Bremen xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 55% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 14% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Werder Bremen in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
55%
1.83
31%
3.19
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.40
0.77
Werder Bremen xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
36.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0.77 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 12 games, going 5W 6D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — 1. FC Nürnberg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Werder Bremen have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.42 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 6D 1L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Werder Bremen away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 2.33 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.33 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Werder Bremen?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when Werder Bremen 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — 1. FC Nürnberg 17% BTTS, Werder Bremen 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 83% (Werder Bremen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Werder Bremen in 33%; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 33% of games; Werder Bremen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 33% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 83% of Werder Bremen's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.63 xG and Werder Bremen 0.77 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.02 / defence 0.73 against Werder Bremen attack 0.78 / defence 1.39, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 55% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 14%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 42%, Werder Bremen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.