1. FC Magdeburg 4-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to Avnet Arena to face 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
SV Darmstadt 98's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Magdeburg. A 0.80 PPG lead over SV Darmstadt 98 (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 70% of SV Darmstadt 98's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg, 2 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 2–1 SV Darmstadt 98 — a 1. FC Magdeburg win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 63% versus SV Darmstadt 98 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 61%). Note also that SV Darmstadt 98 surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while 1. FC Magdeburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.072 / defence 1.213 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.978 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.332. 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 57 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 23.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 42% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.37 | Draw 4.00 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 70% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Avnet Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 42% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.072 / def 1.213 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.978 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Avnet Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Magdeburg 4 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Avnet Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 42% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating (1.07) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.98x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 57 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.00
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.38
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.58 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 19W 19D 19L from 57 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 32L across 57 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Magdeburg by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Darmstadt 98 heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 7W 13D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 5W 8D 15L across their last 28 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.23 scored and 2.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 19W 19D 19L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 10W 15D 32L in their last 57 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.21 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 1. FC Magdeburg 4-1 SV Darmstadt 98 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
3
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 64%, SV Darmstadt 98 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 68% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 57% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 68% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 68% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat SV Darmstadt 98 4-1 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.58 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 42% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 33%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 60%, SV Darmstadt 98 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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