1. FC Magdeburg 0-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Eintracht Braunschweig travel to Avnet-Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 August 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Magdeburg haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Avnet-Arena, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at Avnet-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Eintracht Braunschweig haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.20 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for 1. FC Magdeburg, 2 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 65% and Eintracht Braunschweig 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 71% | Eintracht Braunschweig 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.87 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.041 / defence 1.136 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.975 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.264. Data: 34 1. FC Magdeburg games / 34 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 48% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.57. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Eintracht Braunschweig 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 48% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.87 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.041 / def 1.136 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.975 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.767 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Avnet-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 48% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (6 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 3W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig 2W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 1.04x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.29
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.27
1.40
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
4%
22.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.40 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, 1. FC Magdeburg have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 14W 11D 9L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. 1. FC Magdeburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form line: 9W 12D 13L from 34 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. Eintracht Braunschweig haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, 1. FC Magdeburg are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Braunschweig.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (5W 7D 5L).
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 3W 6D 8L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.18 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Pre-Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 14W 11D 9L in their last 34 games (1.56 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 9W 12D 13L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.29 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
4
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 9 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-6 Eintracht Braunschweig.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 53%, Eintracht Braunschweig 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 47% (Eintracht Braunschweig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 29% of games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 53% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 47% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Braunschweig defy the odds to beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-1 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.87 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.40 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 48% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Eintracht Braunschweig win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 71%, Eintracht Braunschweig 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.