Toulouse 4-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Grenoble encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Grenoble at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 5W 2D 0L from 7 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.43 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Ligue 2 appearances (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium de Toulouse.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have recorded 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grenoble's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.00 PPG). Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Toulouse have the edge — a 1.43 PPG advantage (2.43 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Grenoble trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Toulouse 43% | Grenoble 14%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 43% | Grenoble 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.12 xG and Grenoble 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.079 / defence 1.033 | Grenoble attack 0.582 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 0.753 / away 1.071. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.380 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Toulouse games / 7 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 46% | Draw 35% | Grenoble 20%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Grenoble 5.00. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Grenoble's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 33% | Grenoble 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 46% | Draw 35% | Grenoble 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Toulouse 1.12 / Grenoble 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.079 / def 1.033 | Grenoble attack 0.582 / def 1.380 | league avg home 0.753 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Grenoble xG
33%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Grenoble kick off?
Toulouse vs Grenoble kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Grenoble?
Toulouse 4 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Toulouse vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Grenoble part of?
Toulouse vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 46% chance of winning, Grenoble a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Toulouse and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Grenoble?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Grenoble in?
Toulouse (all comps): 5W-2D-0L in 7 | 2.43 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Grenoble (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.08x the league average against Grenoble's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
46%
2.19
35%
2.87
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Toulouse xG
Total xG
1.76
0.64
Grenoble xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
6%
15.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.64 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse come into this having played 7 games, going 5W 2D 0L for 2.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.43 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Toulouse's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grenoble's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble in 14%.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Grenoble
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 games (2.43 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Grenoble away?
Toulouse's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.33 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Grenoble in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Grenoble runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Toulouse
0
Draws
0
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Grenoble?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Grenoble have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2022, when Grenoble 0-2 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Grenoble?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Toulouse 33% BTTS, Grenoble 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Toulouse and 33% for Grenoble.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Grenoble in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Toulouse's recent matches and 0% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Toulouse's recent games and 33% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Grenoble tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Grenoble 4-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.12 xG and Grenoble 0.64 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Grenoble attack 0.58 / defence 1.38, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 46% | Draw 35% | Grenoble 20%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 43%, Grenoble 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.