Toulouse 6-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Auxerre meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 3D 0L from 5 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Toulouse's favour (2.30 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Toulouse have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Auxerre in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 46% versus Auxerre 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 46% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.17 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.351 / defence 1.300 | Auxerre attack 0.932 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 0.883 / away 1.035. Toulouse carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 1.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Toulouse games / 11 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 32% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 36%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Auxerre 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Toulouse (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 32% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Toulouse 1.17 / Auxerre 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.351 / def 1.300 | Auxerre attack 0.932 / def 0.983 | league avg home 0.883 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Auxerre xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Auxerre kick off?
Toulouse vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Toulouse 6 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Toulouse vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Auxerre part of?
Toulouse vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 32% chance of winning, Auxerre a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Toulouse and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Auxerre in?
Toulouse (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.35x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.93x) against Toulouse's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
32%
3.10
32%
3.16
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.43
1.25
Auxerre xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.25 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Toulouse come into this having played 11 games, going 7W 3D 1L for 2.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (5W 5D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.18 PPG for Toulouse against 1.82 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Toulouse's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.64 scored and 0.64 conceded. Toulouse's scoring rate against Auxerre's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Auxerre in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 7W 3D 1L in their last 11 games (2.18 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Auxerre away?
Toulouse's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.00 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Auxerre in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 6-0 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Toulouse
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Auxerre?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Toulouse 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Auxerre?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 60%, Auxerre 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Toulouse) and 40% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Auxerre in 40%; Auxerre in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Toulouse's games and 60% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Toulouse's recent games and 40% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Auxerre tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Auxerre 6-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.17 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 4.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.35 / defence 1.30 against Auxerre attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 32% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 36%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 46%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Auxerre's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 2.18 PPG, Auxerre 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.