Sochaux 0-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Sochaux welcome Ajaccio to Stade Auguste-Bonal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Sochaux have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ajaccio — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sochaux 1.60 PPG, Ajaccio 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sochaux, 1 for Ajaccio and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Ajaccio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sochaux 46% | Ajaccio 12%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 33% | Ajaccio 8%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.02 xG and Ajaccio 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.004 / defence 1.146 | Ajaccio attack 0.716 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 1.010. Data: 24 Sochaux games / 24 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 38% | Draw 34% | Ajaccio 28%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Ajaccio 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sochaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 50% | Ajaccio 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 38% | Draw 34% | Ajaccio 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Sochaux 1.02 / Ajaccio 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.004 / def 1.146 | Ajaccio attack 0.716 / def 1.016 | league avg home 0.995 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Ajaccio xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Ajaccio kick off?
Sochaux vs Ajaccio kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Ajaccio?
Sochaux 0 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Sochaux vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Ajaccio part of?
Sochaux vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 38% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Sochaux and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Ajaccio?
Record (1 meetings): Sochaux 0W | Draws 0 | Ajaccio 1W.
What form are Sochaux and Ajaccio in?
Sochaux (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sochaux's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
38%
2.64
34%
2.91
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.84
0.83
Ajaccio xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.83 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Sochaux have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 12W 8D 4L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 12W 6D 6L from 24 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sochaux on 1.83 PPG, Ajaccio on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 1.83 PPG from 12 outings (6W 4D 2L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 5W 3D 4L from 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sochaux are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.88 scored and 0.54 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 12%.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Ajaccio in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 12W 8D 4L in their last 24 games (1.83 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 12W 6D 6L in their last 24 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Ajaccio away?
Sochaux's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.83 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sochaux
0
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Ajaccio?
From 2 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 0, Ajaccio have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Sochaux 0-1 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sochaux 42% BTTS, Ajaccio 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Sochaux and 8% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ajaccio in 50%; Ajaccio in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sochaux's recent matches and 17% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Sochaux's recent games and 8% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajaccio defy the odds to beat Sochaux 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Sochaux 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.02 xG and Ajaccio 0.83 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sochaux fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.00 / defence 1.15 against Ajaccio attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 38% | Draw 34% | Ajaccio 28%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 33%, Ajaccio 8%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sochaux 1.83 PPG, Ajaccio 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.