Saint Etienne 2-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Rodez meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rodez have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Saint Etienne, 1.40 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Saint Etienne, 3 for Rodez and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 46% versus Rodez 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 63% | Rodez 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 2.62 xG and Rodez 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.560 / defence 0.860 | Rodez attack 1.156 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.227. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.560 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Saint Etienne games / 41 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 67% | Draw 18% | Rodez 15%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Rodez 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 30% | Rodez 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 67% | Draw 18% | Rodez 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 66% | xG Saint Etienne 2.62 / Rodez 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.560 / def 0.860 | Rodez attack 1.156 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Rodez xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Rodez kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Saint Etienne 2 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Rodez part of?
Saint Etienne vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 67% chance of winning, Rodez a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Saint Etienne and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
Record (8 meetings): Saint Etienne 2W | Draws 3 | Rodez 3W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Rodez in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Rodez (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.56x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.16x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.70
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.84
1.22
Rodez xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
7%
13.68
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
1%
88.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.22 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 23W 8D 12L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez's form line: 18W 15D 10L from 43 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.60 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 2.09 PPG from 22 outings (14W 4D 4L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 9W 7D 6L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.44 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 70%.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Rodez in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Rodez have gone 18W 15D 10L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Rodez away?
Saint Etienne's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 2.09 PPG; Rodez away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Rodez in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
From 9 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Saint Etienne 2-0 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 46%, Rodez 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Saint Etienne and 59% for Rodez. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Rodez in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Saint Etienne's games and 68% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Saint Etienne's matches and 59% of Rodez's.
Do Saint Etienne and Rodez tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rodez in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Rodez 2-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 2.62 xG and Rodez 1.22 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rodez landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.56 / defence 0.86 against Rodez attack 1.16 / defence 1.30, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 67% | Draw 18% | Rodez 15%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 63%, Rodez 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rodez's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.79 PPG, Rodez 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.