Saint Etienne 0-6 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Le Havre are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 71% versus Le Havre 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Le Havre 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.98 xG and Le Havre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.874 / defence 1.134 | Le Havre attack 0.931 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 0.959. Data: 3 Saint Etienne games / 41 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 34% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 35%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Le Havre 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 90% | Le Havre 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 34% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Saint Etienne 0.98 / Le Havre 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.874 / def 1.134 | Le Havre attack 0.931 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.091 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Le Havre xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Le Havre kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Le Havre?
Saint Etienne 0 - 6 Le Havre.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Le Havre part of?
Saint Etienne vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 34% chance of winning, Le Havre a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Saint Etienne and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Le Havre in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.93x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
34%
2.97
31%
3.23
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
1.99
1.01
Le Havre xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.01 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne come into this having played 41 games, going 7W 13D 21L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.27 PPG from 41 outings (13W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Saint Etienne's home form reads 4W 7D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.95 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Le Havre in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 7W 13D 21L in their last 41 games (0.83 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 13W 13D 15L in their last 41 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 0.95 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Le Havre in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won 0-6 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Le Havre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Le Havre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 80%, Le Havre 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Saint Etienne) and 40% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 40%; Le Havre in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Saint Etienne's games and 40% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 40% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Le Havre tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Le Havre run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Saint Etienne 0-6 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.98 xG and Le Havre 1.01 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Le Havre outscored their 1.01 projection by 5.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Le Havre attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 34% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 35%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Le Havre 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.