Saint Etienne 3-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Saint Etienne welcome Annecy to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Annecy's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Saint Etienne's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 1 for Annecy and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Annecy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Annecy in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 57% versus Annecy 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 57% | Annecy 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.24 xG and Annecy 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.956 / defence 1.361 | Annecy attack 1.056 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.059. Data: 21 Saint Etienne games / 21 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 31% | Draw 25% | Annecy 44%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Annecy 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 40% | Annecy 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 31% | Draw 25% | Annecy 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Saint Etienne 1.24 / Annecy 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.956 / def 1.361 | Annecy attack 1.056 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Annecy (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Annecy xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Annecy kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Annecy kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Saint Etienne 3 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Annecy part of?
Saint Etienne vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 31% chance of winning, Annecy a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Saint Etienne and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Annecy in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Annecy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.96x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
31%
3.22
25%
3.97
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.76
1.52
Annecy xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
7%
14.77
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.52 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 6D 10L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy's form line: 7W 7D 7L from 21 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.00 PPG, Annecy on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.05 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy in 29%.
Defensively: Annecy in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Annecy in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Annecy have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Annecy away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.20 PPG; Annecy away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Annecy in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Annecy runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when Annecy won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Annecy have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Saint Etienne 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Saint Etienne 40% BTTS, Annecy 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Saint Etienne) and 40% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 40%; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 30% of games; Annecy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 30% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 40% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Annecy tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Annecy in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Annecy 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Annecy 3-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.24 xG and Annecy 1.52 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.96 / defence 1.36 against Annecy attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 31% | Draw 25% | Annecy 44%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 57%, Annecy 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.00 PPG, Annecy 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.