Rodez 1-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Toulouse travel to Stade Paul Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Monday 2 May 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Toulouse away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 2.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rodez have won 0, Toulouse 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 37% versus Toulouse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 26% | Toulouse 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.83 xG and Toulouse 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.711 / defence 1.171 | Toulouse attack 1.241 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 0.944 / away 1.073. Rodez's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Toulouse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Toulouse have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Rodez games / 35 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 19% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 53%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 1.89. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 50% | Toulouse 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Monday 2 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 19% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Rodez 0.83 / Toulouse 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.711 / def 1.171 | Toulouse attack 1.241 / def 1.238 | league avg home 0.944 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Toulouse xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Toulouse kick off?
Rodez vs Toulouse kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 2 May 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Toulouse?
Rodez 1 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Rodez vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Toulouse part of?
Rodez vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 19% chance of winning, Toulouse a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rodez and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 0W.
What form are Rodez and Toulouse in?
Rodez (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Toulouse (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.71x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
19%
5.34
28%
3.58
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.39
1.56
Toulouse xG
5.34
19%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
4%
25.43
23%
4.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.3 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Rodez and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Rodez and 1.56 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez come into this having played 35 games, going 7W 13D 15L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 2.17 PPG from 35 outings (22W 10D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Rodez — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rodez's home form reads 3W 9D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.94 points per game from 17 outings (9W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.29 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 7W 13D 15L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 22W 10D 3L in their last 35 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.06 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Rodez or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Toulouse in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rodez
1
Draws
0
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Toulouse have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2022, when Rodez 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Toulouse?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 41%, Toulouse 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Rodez) and 53% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Toulouse in 41%; Rodez have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Rodez's recent matches and 59% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Rodez's recent games and 53% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Toulouse tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Toulouse 1-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.83 xG and Toulouse 1.56 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.71 / defence 1.17 against Toulouse attack 1.24 / defence 1.24, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 19% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 53%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Rodez win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 26%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Toulouse's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Rodez winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.