Rodez 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Guingamp at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Rodez welcome Guingamp to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rodez at 1.00 PPG versus Guingamp's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rodez register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rodez have won 0, Guingamp 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Rodez in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 39% versus Guingamp 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 28% | Guingamp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.08 xG and Guingamp 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.932 / defence 1.138 | Guingamp attack 1.152 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.038. Data: 57 Rodez games / 57 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 30% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 43%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 60% | Guingamp 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 30% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Rodez 1.08 / Guingamp 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.932 / def 1.138 | Guingamp attack 1.152 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Guingamp xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Guingamp kick off?
Rodez vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Rodez 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Rodez vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Guingamp part of?
Rodez vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 30% chance of winning, Guingamp a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rodez and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.93) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
30%
3.37
27%
3.66
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.45
1.36
Guingamp xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Rodez and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Rodez and 1.36 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 14W 20D 23L from 57 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 17L across 57 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.09 PPG, Guingamp on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 6W 13D 9L from 28 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 10W 10D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.33 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 14W 20D 23L in their last 57 games (1.09 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 21W 19D 17L in their last 57 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.11 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Rodez or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Guingamp in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rodez
5
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 46%, Guingamp 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Rodez and 43% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 36% of games; Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Rodez's recent matches and 54% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rodez's recent games and 43% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Guingamp tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Rodez 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Rodez 0-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.08 xG and Guingamp 1.36 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rodez fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Guingamp attack 1.15 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 30% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 43%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 28%, Guingamp 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.09 PPG, Guingamp 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.