Rodez 0-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 25 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bastia arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Rodez 2W, Bastia 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Rodez winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 40% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 27% | Bastia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.06 xG and Bastia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.844 / defence 1.167 | Bastia attack 0.986 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.005. Data: 62 Rodez games / 62 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 32% | Bastia 36%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Bastia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Rodez dominate the H2H record, yet Bastia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 70% | Bastia 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 32% | Bastia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Rodez 1.06 / Bastia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.844 / def 1.167 | Bastia attack 0.986 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Bastia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bastia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Bastia kick off?
Rodez vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Bastia?
Rodez 0 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Rodez vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Bastia part of?
Rodez vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 32% chance of winning, Bastia a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rodez and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bastia?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 1 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Rodez and Bastia in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Bastia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rodez's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.99x) against Rodez's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
32%
3.16
32%
3.12
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.22
1.16
Bastia xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rodez and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Rodez and 1.16 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 14W 23D 25L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 20W 21D 21L from 62 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Rodez against 1.31 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rodez have posted 0.97 PPG from 30 outings (5W 14D 11L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 8W 7D 15L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.98 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Bastia in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 14W 23D 25L in their last 62 games (1.05 PPG), while Bastia have gone 20W 21D 21L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 0.97 PPG; Bastia away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Rodez or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rodez
4
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 4, Bastia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Rodez 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Bastia?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 50%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Rodez and 43% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 37% of games; Bastia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rodez's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Rodez's recent games and 43% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Bastia tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bastia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Rodez 0-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.06 xG and Bastia 1.16 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rodez fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bastia outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.84 / defence 1.17 against Bastia attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 32% | Draw 32% | Bastia 36%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 27%, Bastia 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.05 PPG, Bastia 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.