Rodez vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Annecy at Stade Paul-Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stade Paul-Lignon this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Rodez) versus 2.00 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Rodez: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Annecy, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with Annecy winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rodez and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Annecy trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 74% and Annecy 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 53% | Annecy 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.66 xG and Annecy 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.273 / defence 1.029 | Annecy attack 0.991 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Rodez carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Rodez games / 38 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 27% | Annecy 28%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 3.57. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 80% | Annecy 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 27% | Annecy 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Rodez 1.66 / Annecy 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.273 / def 1.029 | Annecy attack 0.991 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Rodez (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Annecy xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Annecy kick off?
Rodez vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 22 January 2027 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Where is Rodez vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Annecy part of?
Rodez vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 45% chance of winning, Annecy a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rodez and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Annecy?
Record (9 meetings): Rodez 5W | Draws 2 | Annecy 2W.
What form are Rodez and Annecy in?
Rodez (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.27) and Annecy's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.69
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.94
1.28
Annecy xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
5%
18.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Rodez and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Rodez and 1.28 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 18W 14D 6L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy's form line: 17W 8D 13L from 38 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.79 PPG, Annecy on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (9W 7D 2L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 9W 1D 8L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.42 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Annecy in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 18W 14D 6L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while Annecy have gone 17W 8D 13L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Annecy away?
Rodez's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.89 PPG; Annecy away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Rodez or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Annecy in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Rodez
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Annecy?
From 9 meetings on record, Rodez have won 5, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Annecy?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 78%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rodez) and 61% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Rodez's games and 44% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rodez's matches and 61% of Annecy's.
Do Rodez and Annecy tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Annecy in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.