Rodez 5-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Annecy at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2 (matchday 13). Kick-off is Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Rodez — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Annecy's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Annecy's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Rodez's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Rodez's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Rodez have won 2, Annecy 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2024, ended Rodez 1–3 Annecy — a Annecy win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Annecy trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 66% and Annecy 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 62% | Annecy 56%). Note also that Annecy surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Rodez recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.56 xG and Annecy 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.113 / defence 1.523 | Annecy attack 1.195 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.094. Rodez's defence rating of 1.523 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Rodez's last 50 games and Annecy's last 50.
Result probabilities: Rodez 30% | Draw 22% | Annecy 48%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.28 | Draw 4.63 | Annecy 2.09. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.99) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rodez's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rodez 70% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 13 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 30% | Draw 22% | Annecy 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Rodez 1.56 / Annecy 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.113 / def 1.523 | Annecy attack 1.195 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Annecy (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Annecy xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rodez vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Rodez vs Annecy kick off?
Rodez vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 8 November 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Rodez 5 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Rodez vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Annecy part of?
Rodez vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 13) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 30% chance of winning, Annecy a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Rodez and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rodez vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.11) and Annecy's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rodez's last 50 games and Annecy's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
30%
3.28
22%
4.63
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.55
1.99
Annecy xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
14%
7.33
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
4%
24.06
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rodez vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Rodez and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Rodez and 1.99 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 18W 15D 17L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Annecy's form line: 18W 14D 18L from 50 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.38 PPG, Annecy on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 24 home games (10W 8D 6L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 8W 7D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.38 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Rodez (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rodez
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Rodez vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Rodez and Annecy in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 18W 15D 17L in their last 50 games (1.38 PPG), while Annecy have gone 18W 14D 18L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Annecy away?
Rodez's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.58 PPG; Annecy away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Rodez or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Annecy in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won Rodez 5-1 Annecy.
Rodez's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Rodez
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Rodez vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Annecy?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rodez have won 5, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Annecy 2-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Annecy?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rodez at 71%, Annecy at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Rodez and 62% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rodez vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rodez and Annecy matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rodez's games and 62% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rodez and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Rodez's matches and 62% of Annecy's.
Do Rodez and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Rodez's recent matches and 62% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rodez run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Annecy 5-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.56 xG and Annecy 1.99 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.11 / defence 1.52 against Annecy attack 1.20 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 30% | Draw 22% | Annecy 48%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 62%, Annecy 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.38 PPG, Annecy 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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